Attention Arizona: Tuition continues its climb upward

We recently completed a study projecting estimated in-state tuition costs for four groups of students: Those graduating high school in 2015, 2019, 2023 and 2027. 

A fair way to project tuition expenses into the future is to average the annual increases over the past five year period, and look forward.  The numbers are stifling.  The average annual tuition increase in Arizona was 13.52%.  From the school year 2009-2010 to 2010-2011 the tuition increased 20.7% alone.  The low was the increase of 5.1% from 2006-2007 to 2007-2008.  So the smallest increase occurred during great economic growth, and under a recession the tuition increases were the most extreme.

As we worked the average in-state tuition increase of 13.52% forward, here is what we estimated.  The high school graduating class of 2015, only four years away from college, will pay an estimated $14,507 in tuition alone their first year and over $70,894 for four years of college.  That's just for one student; one child in one family.  On the extreme end, if the average annual 13.52% tuition increase were to continue, a student graduating high school in 2027 will pay over $320,000 in tuition alone over four years.  That is not affordable.

So, we then took the lowest in-state annual increase in tuition over the past five years (5.1%) and estimated it out over the four future high school graduating classes in our research.  The four-year tuition expense for the high school class of 2015 is nearly $43,000, for the class of 2019 it is about $52,000, for the class of 2023 it is over $63,000, and for the class of 2027 it exceeds $77,000.  Once you combine estimated tuition, room/board, books and living expenses, at this low rate, the class of 2027 will still be required to pay nearly a quarter million dollars to attend college for four years.  Again, this is just for one child.

What stands out?

13.52% - the average annual tuition increase as shown over the previous five academic years.

$222,970 - the four-year cost of attendance estimate for a student graduating in 2027 @ 5.1% annual tuition increases.

20.7% - the tuition jump from the 2009-2010 school year to 2010-2011.  The average home price in the western United States fell 4% in the past 12 months.

$42,597 vs. $70,891 - the difference between an annual 5.1% increase vs. 13.52% for the graduating class of 2015 for four years of in-state tuition.

$50,000/$28,315 - average U.S. household income in 2009 vs. estimated 1st year expenses for the graduating class of 2015.

$280/month – the estimated monthly payment for a graduating college senior this year who took out student loans to cover tuition for four years.

$815/month – the estimated monthly payment for a student graduating high school four years from now who takes out student loans to cover tuition for four years.  

Tuition per/year	2010-2011	2009-2010	2008-2009	2007-2008	2006-2007
ASU	$7,793.00	$6,159.00	$5,409.00	$4,822.00	$4,686.00
UofA	$8,238.00	$6,842.00	$5,531.00	$5,037.00	$4,754.00
NAU	$7,053.00	$6,122.00	$5,217.00	$4,841.00	$4,546.00